Oregon voters will cast their votes in 75 legislative contests on Nov. 3. To understand the balance of power in Salem, you probably only have to track about half a dozen of them.

Control of Congress may be in play this election season, but the Beaver State’s electoral map is not given to such swings.

For legislative Democrats, the biggest risk on Nov. 3 is losing the three-fifths supermajorities they currently enjoy in the Capitol’s oak- and walnut-clad chambers — margins that allow them to pass new taxes without a single Republican vote.

But already-dominant Democrats also may have a chance to run up the score. A national political mood repudiating President Donald Trump could give them momentum to flip Republican-held districts and pad their ranks.

In the state Senate, where Democrats control 18 of 30 seats, most attention is on two places: a Republican-held seat near Salem and a Democratically controlled southern Oregon district that has generated more spending than any other legislative race.

“The fulcrum of power in the Legislature hinges on those two districts,” said John Swanson, who is helping coordinate campaign spending for Senate Republicans. “If we were to lose both, you would see the grasp of the supermajority increase. If we were to win both, we would move more toward balance in the Senate.”

In the House, where every seat is on the ballot, the focus is on four districts. Democrats are bullish they can add to their 37 seats in the 60-person chamber, but they’re also playing defense in a pair of hotly contested swing districts – one on the North Coast, the other centered on Woodburn.

Here’s a rundown of districts to pay attention to on Election Day.

Senate

Senate District 3 — Medford, Ashland

The race to replace outgoing state Sen. Jeff Golden, D-Ashland, is this year’s most expensive legislative battleground. The contest features Democrat Denise Krause, a healthcare consultant and former professor of medicine, against Brad Hicks, a longtime southern Oregon resident who for decades ran the local chamber of commerce.

Krause is running on her healthcare expertise, touting a successful fight against her insurance company after she was diagnosed with breast cancer. She vows to fight to expand affordable healthcare, and casts Hicks as a corporate crony who’s aligned with right-wing stances.

“We have a pretty strong distinction between candidates here,” said Emily Mooney, a consultant helping direct the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund, a committee that supports Senate Democrats. “Brad has worked in the business and corporate world his entire career. Denise is a fighter.”

But Republicans say they’ve got their best candidate in years in Hicks, who has a long history in the Rogue Valley. He’s running on a platform of deregulation, lowering taxes, and restoring balance to a Democratically controlled Capitol he says is badly out of whack.

“Brad is a hometown hero,” said Swanson. “He’s out there knocking doors, and in this home stretch he’s where we want him to be.”

As of Tuesday, Hicks had reported raising nearly $1 million more than Krause in the hyper-expensive contest. The question is whether that will be enough in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 7,000, and which Democrats have held for the better part of two decades.

In the 2024 presidential election, Democrat Kamala Harris bested Trump in the district by 12 percentage points.

Senate District 11 — Salem, Keizer, Woodburn

State Sen. Kim Thatcher, R-Keizer, is barred from seeking reelection for participating in a Republican walkout in 2023.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the lack of an incumbent with Virginia Stapleton, a former Salem city council member whose campaign features a relentless social media presence and a focus on progressive priorities like enacting a rent freeze and hiking taxes on data centers.

Stapleton faces Republican Tracy Cramer, a former state representative from Gervais who lost her reelection bid by just 161 votes two years ago. Cramer, like Hicks in Southern Oregon, criticizes failed Democratic policies in Salem, and pegs Stapleton as a tax-and-spend liberal at a time voters are weary of high costs. But in a district with a large Hispanic population, Cramer also finds herself parrying attacks that cast her as overly friendly to Trump’s immigration crackdowns.

Cramer has outraised Stapleton so far, but Democrats have an advantage of roughly 4,000 registered voters in SD 11, and argue their get-out-the-vote operation will carry the day. The district favored Harris over Trump in the 2024 presidential election by roughly 5 percentage points.

“[Stapleton] and her team have knocked more than any other Senate race in the state,” said Mooney. “That district is won by knocking doors.”

Other potential races of interest

If Democrats have a really strong election, they argue they have a chance to flip two Republican-held districts: Senate District 16 on the North Coast, and Senate District 26, which stretches from the Columbia River Gorge to Portland’s southeastern suburbs. Both of those seats are open this year. Republicans believe it’s possible a good night for them could include flipping Senate District 10, currently held by Salem-based Democratic Sen. Deb Patterson.

House

House District 21 — Salem, Keizer

State Rep. Kevin Mannix, R-Salem, has a longer political résumé than just about anyone in the Capitol. He was elected to the state House as a Democrat in the late 80s, switched parties, and was the 2002 GOP nominee for governor. Mannix took a break from elected office for a couple decades before returning to the House in 2023.

This year, the attorney faces a credible threat from Democrat Michael Welsh, a safety manager for Sherwin-Williams. Welsh is leaning into his work in an industrial setting to highlight support for working-class Oregonians.

Mannix, who is well-known for successfully pushing tough-on-crime ballot measures in the 90s, has a reputation these days for negotiating with majority Democrats. He argues he’s brought a commonsense approach to governance that serves his district well.

Mannix has outspent Welsh so far, but Democrats have a registration advantage in the district, and Harris won there by more than 5 percentage points.

House District 22 – Woodburn

This district was the closest legislative race in 2022, when Democrat Lesly Muñoz, a teachers’ union employee, took a late lead and prevailed by fewer than 200 votes. This year, it might be the ugliest.

Muñoz and her Republican challenger, Noemi Legaspi, have attacked each other much of the way. Legaspi faced heat for falsely claiming in the voter’s pamphlet that a Muñoz staffer is a convicted felon, when in reality he was convicted of misdemeanor assault in a domestic matter. Muñoz and her allies responded by filing election complaints, but Legaspi doubled down, saying in a video that Muñoz “protects all criminals.”

Mudslinging aside, HD 22 is intriguing, containing the smallest number of registered voters of any district in the state. Democrats expect Woodburn’s sizable Hispanic population to vote against Republicans in reaction to Trump’s immigration policies, and have attempted to cast Legaspi — a therapist and daughter of Mexican immigrants — as sympathetic to ICE enforcement.

Republicans, meanwhile, have highlighted Muñoz’s support for a package of tax increases pushed by Gov. Tina Kotek last year, and her embrace of the Democratic Socialists of America.

As of Wednesday, Legaspi had reported raising roughly $100,000 more than Muñoz. Democrats have a registration advantage of roughly 1,400 voters over Republicans, but nonaffiliated voters in the district outnumber registered voters in both parties put together.

House District 32 – North Coast

State Rep. Cyrus Javadi of Tillamook won this district twice as a Republican. Then last year, Javadi switched parties to Democrat. The question in what may be this year’s most intriguing legislative race is whether North Coast voters will reelect him anyway.

Javadi, a dentist, is highlighting a moderate voting record and willingness to break with his former party evidence of his independence. He says he can work as a member of the majority party to better deliver for coastal residents.

But Republican Max Sherman says Javadi is a turncoat who ran as an anti-abortion, anti-tax candidate two years ago, but this year is endorsed by Planned Parenthood and preaching the benefits of higher transportation taxes. Sherman, a farmer and former longtime high school teacher, says his deep roots on the coast make him a better fit to represent the district.

Republicans have controlled HD 32 since 2021, but Democrats think Javadi is primed to turn the tide this year. The GOP sees it has their race to lose.

“This’ll be a true test of: Can you switch parties and flip-flop on all your positions and survive?” said Dru Draper, a consultant helping run Evergreen PAC, a committee that supports House Republicans.

The coastal battle had attracted more money than any other state House race as of Wednesday, with both candidates reporting raising more than $1 million. Sherman had an edge of roughly $300,000, but party registration favors Democrats by roughly 2,000 voters.

House District 52 — The Gorge

One of this year’s white-hot political issues – data centers’ rapid expansion amid the artificial intelligence boom – burns especially bright in the Columbia River Gorge, which has long played host to the controversial facilities. The House race there offers voters an especially stark choice.

Republican candidate Scott Hege is chair of the Wasco County Commission and a former economic development head at the Port of The Dalles. In those roles, he has helped support the emergence of data centers in the district. Hege owns that history, and may have the most thoroughly AI campaign ad in Oregon this year: a twee spot that sets an attack on his opponent to a folksy backbeat.

Hege faces Democratic political newcomer Hank Sanders, a former newspaper reporter who most recently worked in the legislative office of his mother, state Sen. Lisa Reynolds. Sanders is running an explicitly anti-data center campaign. Democrats say he’s also likely their hardest-working House candidate this year, knocking upwards of 15,000 doors himself.

“He’s spoken to so many of his neighbors out there personally one-on-one,” said Oliver Muggli, a consultant helping coordinate House Democrats’ strategy this year. “That’s really unusual. I think we are seeing people respond to it.”

HD 52 has been held by Republican state Rep. Jeff Helfrich since 2023, but he’s leaving to pursue the state Senate seat currently held by GOP gubernatorial hopeful Christine Drazan. Democrats think the district is ready to flip, and voters there picked Harris over Trump by nearly seven percentage points. Still, Hege has so far outraised Sanders by roughly $500,000.

News Source : https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/29/election-2026-races-oregon-house-senate-salem/