If Oregon were a political island, isolated from the national headlines, the odds of state Sen. Christine Drazan breaking the nearly 40-year losing streak of Republicans running for governor would be higher.

For years now, Oregon voters from both political parties have been concerned about the state’s economy, poor school rankings, declining populations and the high cost of living. More recently, they have watched grocery and gas prices climb. It’s hard for any incumbent politician to be popular in this environment.

And Gov. Tina Kotek is not popular.

“Kotek does polling. She knows she’s not popular,” said John Horvick, of the Portland polling firm DHM Research, who mentioned the example of Oregon being an island. “There is nothing she can really do to make herself popular in the next two months.”

Oregon isn’t an island, though; Drazan’s party controls the White House, and President Donald Trump’s policies are just as unpopular in Oregon as Kotek’s.

With the Labor Day holiday over, the race to be the next governor of Oregon is speeding up and it’s safe to expect the candidates will hone and amplify their messaging.

Democrats will focus the scope of the race beyond Oregon, tying Drazan to President Trump and federal policies whenever possible, such as changes to vote-by-mail, immigration enforcement or healthcare cuts.

Drazan will do her best to focus the race inwards. She’s held two of her high-profile press conferences in downtown Portland with a clear message: The status quo isn’t working.

Four years ago, the Republican had to compete in rural areas with Betsy Johnson, who was running as a third-party candidate in the governor’s race. This time, without another challenger vying for conservative votes, Drazan is able to focus more on the more populated centers in the state.

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Most insiders agree the race appears competitive, but that doesn’t always translate into close.

“You still have to get people who don’t like the current governor to like you enough to vote for them,” said Rebecca Tweed, a political strategist who ran Republican Knute Buehler’s campaign for governor in 2018.

Oregonians love to reelect the incumbent, Tweed said.

“Just because they don’t like their leader, doesn’t mean they are willing to vote them out of office.”

When Drazan and Kotek faced each other four years ago, homelessness, housing and mental health topped the list of concerns for voters. This year, most voters tell pollsters like Horvick that their main concern is affordability.

Bob Haley, who lives in Southwest Portland, said he’s exclusively voted for Democrats since 1970. The retired wealth manager said he’s “appalled” by what’s happening at the federal level, but he still plans to cast his first vote for a Republican in decades.

He recently held a meet-and-greet in downtown Portland for fellow Democrats interested in talking to Drazan. His values don’t perfectly align with Drazan’s, he said, but he believes the state is facing more urgent matters and it’s time for the Democratic party in Oregon to have “a wake-up call.”

“You can’t have social justice if you don’t have economic prosperity,” Haley said, calling the Democratic party currently “so anti-business it’s distressing.”

Plus, he pointed out the Legislature will surely continue to be controlled by Democrats. A divided government, he said, doesn’t sound so bad. Haley is the exact type of voter Drazan is hoping she can push to her side.

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But Kotek’s supporters understand that, despite her deep unpopularity, having the “D” for Democrat next to her name is compelling in this state.

“Drazan doesn’t hold the values Oregonians value,” said Melissa Unger, the leader of one of the more powerful unions in this state, SEIU Local 503.

“She wouldn’t put it as a top priority to make sure everyone has healthcare. If she had been governor when SNAP benefits had been cut,” Unger said, noting the passage of H.R. 1 and major changes to the federal food assistance program, “she wouldn’t have done what it takes to make sure no one got their benefits cut. She isn’t going to enforce that we are a sanctuary state.”

In the next couple of weeks, the advertisements will likely grow more negative as each candidate tries to distinguish themselves from the other. Voters got a taste of that last week when after years of taking more cautious stances, both candidates suddenly emerged with impassioned positions on data centers.

On Sept. 3, the Drazan campaign put out a campaign advertisement blasting Kotek for giving data centers over $1 billion in tax breaks and “ignoring the concerns of Oregon communities” while raising taxes on Oregonians. The Democratic Party of Oregon countered with a new nickname for the Drazan on the same day, calling her “database Drazan.”

The following week, on Sept. 8, within hours of each other, both candidates seemingly came to the same conclusion and declared they supported a statewide moratorium on data centers. Polling from DHM has shown that voters are becoming increasingly against the proliferation of data centers.

Bernice Cannistraci, who lives in unincorporated Multnomah County, described herself as a straight-ticket Democrat.

“But in Oregon, what I experience as a gay, BIPOC mother in my mid 40s is it seems our extremely progressive policies have left the people who support those policies and their families behind,” Cannistraci said, referring to Black, Indigenous, and People of Color.

Cannistraci considers herself a compassionate person who believes in the state’s social safety net. But she’s felt increasingly frustrated that her tax dollars, which she points out are very high, don’t seem to be making a dent in improving public schools or the interwoven crises of homelessness, housing, mental health and crime.

Christine Drazan heads to downtown Portland to promise voters better days ahead

This summer, she also attended a “Democrats for Drazan” event, this time at an art gallery in Portland’s Pearl District. She said Drazan seemed like a “real-talk mom” and added, “call me crazy, but she seems to have integrity.”

But, still.

“I’m probably voting for Kotek,” she said. “And that is because of this national political environment. But I’ve never been so serious about considering a Republican candidate in the last 26 years.”

Cannistraci is the type of voter both candidates will spend the next couple of weeks trying to persuade.

Kotek has about $8 million in the bank to do so and Drazan has $3 million, according to the latest filings.

News Source : https://www.opb.org/article/2026/09/14/oregon-governor-race-ramps-up/