Prediction market platforms allow people to place bets on a staggering array of outcomes — from the US-Iran conflict to the winner of the World Cup to who Taylor Swift’s bridesmaids will be. Add to that list betting on wildfires.

High Country News recently reported that Polymarket, the world’s biggest prediction market platform, accepted bets on the Palisades Fire as it broke out in January 2025 in Los Angeles County. The fire killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures. High Country News also reported on the launch of another prediction market earlier this year that is currently accepting only simulated bets on wildfires in California.

Betting on where and when a wildfire starts, and on how it grows, raises ethical and safety concerns. A user on the prediction platform could, for example, engage in arson to score big on a placed bet. The federal and state fire officials High Country News spoke to rejected claims that bets placed on wildfires could aid their wildfire forecasting and monitoring efforts.

High Country News correspondent Kylie Mohr joins us to share more details and what it means for Oregon as state officials prepare for a potentially destructive wildfire season.

“Think Out Loud®” broadcasts live at noon every day and rebroadcasts at 8 p.m.

If you’d like to comment on any of the topics in this show or suggest a topic of your own, please get in touch with us on Facebook, send an email to [email protected], or you can leave a voicemail for us at 503-293-1983.

News Source : https://www.opb.org/article/2026/07/08/think-out-loud-wildfire-prediction-betting/