The formula for getting to this season’s Orange Bowl apparently went like this: Score a ton of points, allow very few points, have a big play on basically every possession, excel on third downs offensively, be stingy on third downs defensively.

That was Texas Tech’s path.

That was also Oregon’s path.

Numbers-wise, Texas Tech and Oregon have basically been mirroring images of one another this season. They’re both 12-1, neither has lost since mid-October, both have top-10 scoring offenses, both have top-10 scoring defenses ... the similarities go on and on and on.

The Red Raiders ( No. 4 AP, No. 4 CFP) and Ducks (No. 5 AP, No. 5 CFP) will square off in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, with the winner headed to the national semifinals at the Peach Bowl next week against either Indiana or Alabama.

“Everybody knows the stakes,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. “These are moments that you’re excited to get to go be a part of.”

There are no shortage of numbers that have one team looking a lot like the other. Points per game, it’s Texas Tech 42.5 and Oregon 39.2. Points allowed per game, it’s Texas Tech 10.9 and Oregon 16.3. Yards per game, it’s Texas Tech 480 and Oregon 469. Yards allowed per game, it’s Texas Tech 254 and Oregon 271. Yards allowed per play, it’s Texas Tech 3.96 and Oregon 4.36.

“How lucky are we? And that’s not a question, but man, a statement of gratitude,” Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire said. “You know, if you had told my 13-year-old self that I’m getting ready to coach on January 1st in the Orange Bowl at 11 a.m. Central time, man, I would have probably never believed it. So, I’m just so fortunate and grateful that we get to do this and man, we’re excited.”

It could be argued that this is already the best season in Texas Tech history, with a school record for wins and a strong likelihood that the Red Raiders will finish the year 10th or better in the final AP Top 25 for the first time.

Clearly, they are aiming for much more.

“It’s more of an internal thing for us to push through and try to be the best that we can no matter what the outside voices say,” star Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez said. “If they say that we’re the best, we’ll try to play the best. If they say we’re the worst, we’ll try to play the best.”

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore said after the Ducks’ win over James Madison in Round 1 of the CFP that this has been the longest season of his life — now 14 games and counting, with the potential of two more after this one.

And he’s not complaining.

“I feel like with this team, we were very young at the beginning of the year, but we’ve had a lot of experience,” Moore said. “We’ve been pushing each other every day.”

Playing early

Texas Tech will be playing for the sixth time this season in a game starting at noon Eastern, or 11 a.m. Central. The Red Raiders are 5-0 in those games this season.

“I started saying we’re the best 11 o’clock team in the country,” McGuire said.

It’s the second noon Eastern — or 9 a.m. Pacific — game for Oregon. The Ducks beat Northwestern 34-14 on Sept. 13 in the other early kick they had this season.

And obviously, both teams have been in South Florida for a few days — plenty of time to acclimate to time changes.

Among the best

The game features some of college football’s active career leaders in a few different statistical categories at the FBS level.

Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman leads all active players in solo tackles per game over a career (4.78), while Texas Tech’s 1-2 defensive punch of Rodriguez and David Bailey are also on the active leader lists.

Rodriguez is second in forced fumbles among active FBS players (13), while Bailey is third in forced fumbles (10) and third in sacks (28).

Something will give?

A good rule for the Orange Bowl: 35 points is typically enough. And these two teams make scoring 35 points look easy at times.

Teams that score 35 or more points in the Orange Bowl are 24-1 all-time. The exception was Jan. 3, 2014, when Clemson beat Ohio State 40-35.

The average score of an Orange Bowl to this point: 28-14.

The series

This could have been the third consecutive season where Oregon and Texas Tech met on the field. They played in 2023 and were scheduled to again last season — but altered those plans so Oregon could continue its annual rivalry game with Oregon State.

The 2024 game was moved to the 2033 season.

Explosive plays

Another numerical similarity: Big plays.

Oregon has 91 plays for 20 or more yards this season, the most in the country. The No. 2 team on that list? Texas Tech, with 90 such plays.

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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football

News Source : https://www.opb.org/article/2025/12/31/orange-bowl-showdown-texas-tech-oregon-mirror-images-face-off-cfp-quarterfinals/